THANKSGIVING AM: Refresh for graph and more analysis It’s forever theatrical for Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which is ahead of yesterday afternoon’s estimates $10 millionbut not so much for the studio’s animated film Strange world what did $4.2 million yesterday. This translates to industry estimates of 3 days and 5 days $43 million and $55 million – $60 million in front of Wakanda forever, and a disastrous 3 and 5 day of $15.8 million and $20 million – $23 million in front of Strange world which cost a reported $135 million. That’s not the worst thing for a Disney animation, especially during Thanksgiving, but it comes damn close: their $140 million original animated feature Treasure planet was in freefall in 2003 with a 3-day of $12 million and $16.5 million. A former Disney executive once told me, “They are very good at making the best decision in the worst case scenario” and in the scenario of strange world, that’s sending it to Disney+ by the holidays. Even though the picture is tanking in theaters, that kind of big screen release will at least give it some mojo in the sidelines. Everyone remembers that if theatrical is trying to find its footing, especially among these adult titles that don’t find an audience – either that or it’s a case of niche cannibalization of itself.
Speaking of adult titles, while those from Sony and Black Label Media Dedication per public box office reporting sees $1.8 million from yesterday at 3,405 theaters, and $10.2 million for the 5-day and 3-day van $6.1 millionhowever, industry sources tell us this AM that Netflix’s sneak preview of release of Glass Onion: A Mystery of the Blades kills all adult competition, and it’s only in 638 theaters. We hear Wednesday was very close $2 millionwith the 3-day and 5-day expected $8.5 million and $10 million – $12.3 million, which is great for adult counter-programming right now. We’ll update you when Netflix reports numbers. If the Rian Johnson-directed, Ram Bergman-produced whodunnit sequel comes out on top, that’s a massive $19.2K theatrical average and proof that adults still want to see the movies. As we told you before, especially since a lot of these movies post single digits, they’re too niche, hence their lower ticket sales. Any development manager scratching his head about what’s currently working on the big screen among older adults, splash some cold water in your face and think about last year’s crime caper package from Ridley Scott, House of Gucci with Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Jared Leto and Al Pacino. That movie, when there was more concern about Covid, posted a $14.4 million for three days and $22 million for five days. Just a refresher on the kind of movies that rip adults out.
Knives out 2 buries such mature fare as ($1.1 million Wednesday, $5 million second weekend and $7 million 5 days), Bones and all ($921K wed, $2.4 million 3-day and $3.9 million 5 days) and Universal’s expansion of Amblin’s The Fables what did $400K in 638 theaters for a predicted $2.2 million 3-day and $3 million 5 days. On the high side, the Steven Spielberg-directed movie will end up with $4.7K theater average.
And get this iSpot shows Netflix spent less than the majors to open Glass onion with $4.3 million in TV spots to Disney’s $16 million in strange world, Sony’s $14.8 million on dedication, Searchlight is $10.8 million on The menu and Uni’s $8.5 million up the fablemans,
RelishMix reports this Knives out 2 had a massive social media reach of 307.7 million, up nearly 3x from the first one that opened in 2018 to $26.7 million and $41.1 million. Edward Norton on 4.1M, Janelle Monáe on 7.4M while Daniel Craig is not yet on the grid.
RelishMix says of the buzz: “Convo on Glass onion runs positively with mixed curiosity about how it will compare to the success of version one. Fans are speculating from materials, whodunnit in the cast with chatter about the “smoothest transition for a 007 ever” – as well as support for Dave Bautista’s tattoos and adoration for Ed Norton, Kate Hudson and Janelle Monáe. Fans are talking about the sliding streaming windows and openly debating whether to wait or go – wondering how surprising the revelations in the story will be.
Strange world received four stars on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak and a B CinemaScore. Men over the age of 25 were dominant at 33%, but hated it at 66%. Women over 25 were next in attendance at 24% but gave it a 90% grade, then men under 25 at 23% and 83% and women under 25 at 21% and gave the photo the best grade at 92%. Diversity demos were 47% White, 25% Asian, 22% Hispanic, and 6% Black. Not a flashy recommendation with 55%. RelishMix noticed that Strange world social media awareness levels were 22% below the norm for family animated films at 172 million. The Disney social media campaign runs on the cross-promotional momentum of Disney’s social network with 107.7 million and Disney Animations with 26.2 million on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok, including cast at 217.2 million with total views at 38.2 million across all channels.
Dedication gets 5 stars on PostTrak, 90% score. Diversity demos were 61% White, 19% Black, 11% Hispanic and Latino, and 6% Asian. Men over 25 were tall at 49% (grade 88%), women over 25 at 33% (grade 95%), men under 25 at 12% (76%), and women under 25 at 6% (100% ).
Bones and all gets a B Cinemascore and 3 stars on PostTrak. Timothee Chalmet’s fans were the majority in this movie with women under 25 at 32% but a figure of 73%. Men over 25 were next with 25% but with a low figure of 58%, then women over 25 with 23% and 76% and men under 25 with 19% and a figure of 80%.
While ticket sales will drop -16% today due to the holiday, they will be up +93% tomorrow on Black Friday, a big day for moviegoing.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Early numbers and take the 3-day and 5-day with a grain of salt as projections are always off at this point in a Thanksgiving trajectory. Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda forever leads today by $9.5 million, even with yesterday and a $50 million Outlook from Wednesday to Sunday. However, strange world, as we thought, it fell under the $30 million projection $23 million – $27 million. Including previews, today looks round $4.5 million until $5 million for that animation. Charm last year had an opening day of $7.6 million. Evidently, Strange world closed the gap on early matinees with charm, and hopefully that momentum will continue.
Sony and Black Label Media Dedication can be seen in 3,405 theaters $1.7 million today $9 million – $10 million for the 5-day, third place. Searchlight The menu has an estimate $1 million for Wednesday before $6 million – $8 million more than 5 days.
Right now I’m hearing irregular messages about it Glass Onion: A Mystery of the Blades. Some have it ahead of all the new pre-sale adult counter-programming, while others don’t.
WEDNESDAY AM: It’s not like people didn’t go to the movies yesterday while we were on our way to Thanksgiving: Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever created $9.5 million in 4,258 theaters on Tuesday, helping the Ryan Coogler-directed sequel cross the three-century mark with $303.7 millionmaking it the 7th film to cross that threshold this year after that Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Jurassic World: Dominion, Minions: The Rise of Gru, The Batman and Thor: Love and Thunder.
There wasn’t much excitement to see Disney Animation’s previews last night, though Strange world, which, as we mentioned, doesn’t look very good for the holiday season. From previews that started at 6 p.m., Strange world did it alone $800K, which is arguably the lowest for a Disney Thanksgiving theatrical release in the era of early preview movie theaters. That’s almost half of what Charm did a year ago in its Tuesday preview with $1.5 million, and then there were more pandemic fears among moviegoers. A $30 million+ five-day start to Strange world at 4,174 theaters is what we thought, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if it’s lower as the weekend ranks among Wakanda forever, who now tends to do $50 million+ from Wednesday to Sunday. Audience rating on Strange world is currently low on Rotten Tomatoes at 62%, but only from 50 reviews.
Wakanda foreverTuesday’s, up 36% from Monday, represents the third highest weekday (outside Friday) after the first Monday and Tuesday, which brought in $11.1 million and $12.6 million, respectively.
Searchlight The menu was second yesterday with $1.3 million at 3,228 locations, up 26% from Monday for a five-day rolling total of $11.3 million at 3,211. While A24s Midsummer -a good genre comp for this Menu- took a different trajectory, opening on a Wednesday in July, the Mark Mylod-directed Anya Taylor Joy movie here’s 4% of the Ari Aster movie in its first five days.
Explore events and Angel Studios’ The Chosen: Season 3 Posted $1.02 million-19% from Monday for a running total of $11 million.
New line/DCs Black Adam was fourth on Tuesday with $690K at 3,372 locations, +17% for a running total of $158.3 million. The Dwayne Johnson movie is available digitally for $24.99 or for 48-hour rentals via PVOD for $19.99. The film will be released on DVD, Blu-Ray and 4K on January 3.
In 5th place was Universal’s romantic comedy George Clooney and Julia Roberts, Ticket to paradise, what made $490K in 3,268 theaters, +22% as of Monday for a running total of $62.4 million. The photo is already available to view on PVOD.
The Sony-distributed war film Black Label Media Dedication created $615K in 2,982 theaters starting at 6 p.m. That figure is higher than the figure for Thursday previews for Focus Features’ BlackKKKlansman which made $600K before seeing $3.6 million on Friday, and opening $10.8 million, but that was a completely different time of year, which was pre-pandemic 2018 in late summer. The Jonathan Majors-Glen Powell movie is expected to see $7 million to $8 million over five days.
United Artists Releasing’s wide expansion previews of Bones and all did $345K while today it goes to 2,700 theaters. For five days apart from previews, the Luca Guadagnino-directed genre picture has been shooting $146.7K from five theaters in NYC and LA. A five-day single-digit withdrawal is expected.